Canadians heading abroad are facing an unsettling possibility: jet fuel shortages could reshape summer travel before the season even peaks. The warning is not about one airline or one route alone, but about a widening squeeze in Europe and parts of Asia as the Middle East conflict strains supply. That does not mean every flight is suddenly at risk. It does mean travelers may be walking into a period of higher fares, tighter schedules, and more cancellations than usual.
Why the Fuel Squeeze Matters Now
The immediate concern is timing. The International Energy Agency has warned that European airlines could face a jet fuel shortage by June if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. In Europe, some carriers are already signaling strain. Lufthansa said it is shutting down its CityLine subsidiary and grounding as many as 27 planes. Ryanair has said it can only guarantee fuel shipments until mid-May, while Virgin Atlantic’s chief executive, Corneel Koster, said the airline has about six weeks of secure supply.
Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, gave a similar six-week timeline for Europe’s jet fuel supply. That places the problem squarely inside the summer booking window, when passengers are already committing to international trips and airlines are managing peak demand.
Where Jet Fuel Pressure Could Hit Hardest
John Gradek, a McGill University aviation management lecturer, said flights to Britain and Southeast Asia could be hit particularly hard. Britain depends heavily on imported aviation fuel, especially from the Middle East, while several Southeast Asian countries rely almost entirely on imported supply from the same region. Gradek said some of those markets have only two or three weeks of fuel.
He also noted that carriers in Thailand, South Korea, and Vietnam are already reducing capacity, with Vietnam parking about 20 per cent of its fleet. That is important because jet fuel shortages do not always appear first as grounded aircraft; they often show up as fewer flights, weaker schedules, and thinner route options before they become visible to passengers.
For Canada, the near-term picture is more stable. Canada has several jet-fuel refineries and more secure supply chains, so domestic flying is expected to remain relatively steady. Still, the broader travel system can transmit the shock even when home-market operations remain intact.
What Travelers Should Watch Before Booking
Travel and aviation experts are urging caution without panic. Their advice is not to cancel trips too early, because doing so could weaken a passenger’s position if a flight is later cancelled and a refund or rebooking becomes available. For those who have not booked yet, refundable tickets may offer a better balance between price and flexibility.
That advice matters because booking behavior is already changing. Flight Centre Travel Group Canada said domestic bookings accounted for a third of its bookings last month, a share it had not seen in years. Amra Durakovic, a spokesperson for the company, said the gap between typical Canadian travel to the U. S. and recent levels narrowed by about 10 percentage points last month, suggesting some travelers are already shifting plans as international options become less predictable.
The risk for consumers is not only cancellation. It is also cost. Jet fuel is airlines’ biggest expense, making up about 30 per cent of overall costs, and prices have roughly doubled since the war began. Even where flights still operate, they may be more expensive because fuel costs have to be absorbed somewhere.
Airline Obligations, Higher Costs, and the Wider Ripple Effect
Gabor Lukacs, president of the advocacy group Air Passenger Rights, said booking obligations do not disappear even in the event of war. That means if an airline cancels a flight because of fuel shortages, it still must offer passengers a refund or rebooking on the next available flight, including on other carriers when appropriate. The practical challenge is that rebooking becomes harder when schedules are already reduced.
There is also a wider market effect. Amaar Khan, head of European jet fuel pricing at Argus Media, said every day the Strait of Hormuz remains shut pushes Europe closer to shortages. He noted that the strait accounts for around 40 per cent of Europe’s jet fuel imports, and no jet fuel has passed through since the war broke out. That kind of supply bottleneck can ripple through fares, baggage fees, fuel surcharges, and route planning.
In that sense, the crisis is not just about one product moving through one passage. It is about whether airlines can keep enough fuel moving through a system built on just-in-time availability and complex international logistics. For now, domestic flying in Canada may remain relatively stable, but the international map is already tightening.
What the Next Few Weeks Could Decide
The next few weeks may determine whether the strain remains a manageable disruption or turns into a deeper summer travel crunch. If supply keeps tightening, travelers could see fewer choices, higher prices, and more cancellations on long-haul routes. If supply stabilizes, some of the worst outcomes may be avoided. Either way, the pressure on jet fuel supplies has already changed the booking calculus. The open question is how many more passengers will feel it before the summer travel season fully arrives.
