In a sudden turn that lifted risk appetite across markets, cac 40 gained sharply as the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran eased fears over the Strait of Hormuz. The move came after oil prices fell hard in early trading, with investors reacting to the prospect of a temporary reopening of the strategic passage. The shift was broad: energy prices dropped, equities moved higher, and traders treated the truce as a relief rather than a resolution.
Oil shock fades as traders price in a reopening
Vers 11 h 15 ET, Brent for June delivery was down 13. 04% at 95. 02 dollars a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate for May delivery had fallen 15. 27% to 95. 70 dollars. A separate reading before the opening of markets showed U. S. crude for May delivery at 93. 73 dollars after a drop of 15. 54 dollars, while another price point placed it at 92. 84 dollars a barrel. The shared message was clear: the market was repricing a disruption that had centered on the near-paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas production normally passes.
The truce announced Tuesday says the United States will halt attacks on Iran for two weeks, while Tehran temporarily reopens the maritime route linking the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. That arrangement matters because it directly affects the flow of crude and refined products that had been effectively trapped. In that context, cac 40 reflects more than equity optimism; it captures a broader reset in market expectations once the immediate threat to shipping eased.
Cac 40 and European equities catch the relief trade
European markets responded in tandem. The CAC 40 rose 4. 5% in mid-session, the DAX advanced nearly 5%, and the FTSE 100 gained 2. 9%. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 climbed 5. 4%, the S& P/ASX 200 added 2. 6%, the Kospi jumped 6. 9%, and the Shanghai composite rose 2. 7%. In New York, futures tied to U. S. stocks moved higher, with the S& P 500 up 2. 7%, the Dow Jones industrial average up 2. 6%, and the Nasdaq up 3. 4% before the opening bell.
The pattern suggests that investors were not celebrating an end to the conflict, but a reduction in the probability of an immediate energy shock. That distinction matters. The gains were driven by relief, not confidence that the underlying dispute had been solved. Even with the truce in place, the market still faced the possibility that shipping disruptions could return if the arrangement faltered.
Market analysts warn the calm may be temporary
Kathleen Brooks, analyst at XTB, described the move as “an enormous market reversal, a massive relief. ” Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM, said that if reopening is confirmed in the coming days, “in theory, the 10 to 13 million barrels per day of crude and products that were blocked should now be gradually released. ” Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad Energy, added that at 95 dollars a barrel, oil remains “still a very high oil price, ” underscoring that the market is not returning to pre-crisis levels.
That caution is echoed by DNB Carnegie analysts, who said there are several friction points that could make a permanent peace agreement difficult when negotiations begin. U. S. Vice President J. D. Vance called the ceasefire “fragile, ” and the Pakistani prime minister said violations of the ceasefire between Iran and the United States had been signaled. Those details help explain why the drop in oil and the rise in cac 40 should be read as a repricing of immediate danger, not a durable verdict on the region’s stability.
What the truce could mean beyond one trading day
The wider implications extend beyond energy. A temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could gradually release volumes that had been constrained, but the market still has to absorb logistical delays and damage to energy infrastructure in the region. Leon said even a permanent ceasefire would not quickly push prices below 80 dollars, given the backlog in the strait and the damage already done. That suggests the shock has altered the market floor even if it has not locked in a new ceiling.
For now, the message from equities and commodities is consistent: investors are willing to reward any sign of de-escalation, but they are not yet pricing in full normalization. If the truce holds, the next test will be whether shipping resumes smoothly and whether the fragile calm can survive the first signs of strain. If it does not, cac 40 may prove to have been only a brief reflection of relief rather than the start of a lasting recovery.
