In a policy room far from the living rooms where families plan school pickups, therapy appointments, and overnight care, ndis has become the focus of a federal push to slow spending and reset the scheme’s direction. Health minister Mark Butler is preparing major changes that would tighten eligibility for children and require more checks on service providers.
Why is Labor changing ndis now?
Labor says the shift is meant to bring the scheme back to its original purpose: supporting people with permanent and significant disabilities. The changes are also designed to slow a program that has grown far faster than the government wants. The scheme’s cost rose by more than 10. 3% last year and is projected to reach $63bn by 2028-29, with the latest quarterly update forecasting $95. 8bn in 2034-35.
The federal government wants annual growth brought back to between 5% and 6%, and ndis will be the biggest source of savings in the 12 May federal budget. Butler has said the government intends to work with the states, but his announcement has already triggered resistance from state counterparts, especially in Queensland.
What is changing for children and providers?
Two changes sit at the center of the plan. First, service providers will face mandatory character checks. Second, eligibility rules will be tightened further for children under 18. The government says the provider checks are meant to help stop waste and push out dodgy operators behind systemic fraud. It has also pointed to organized crime groups that have infiltrated the scheme, using coercion and cash kickbacks to participants and families to launder money.
State governments are preparing for more children under 18 to be transitioned away from ndis services, beyond the foundational supports program announced by Butler last year. That program, Thriving Kids, is intended to support children with autism and developmental delays and is due to begin in October. Queensland is yet to sign an operating deal for the new program.
What are states and families saying?
Queensland disability minister Amanda Camm was blocked from attending a Tuesday briefing with Butler and Treasurer Jim Chalmers. Only state and territory treasurers were briefed on the cuts ahead of the public announcement, not the ministers responsible for implementing them. That detail has sharpened the political tension around a reform that will affect families directly.
Camm warned that Labor must not abandon vulnerable children to improve the budget bottom line. “The federal government’s plan to walk away from their responsibilities to children and families is failing kids, not thriving kids, ” she said. She added that serious concerns remain about the long-term care of these children, and those likely to be next in line for change.
Shadow NDIS minister Melissa McIntosh said Labor had not consulted Australians with disabilities and their families. She said the scheme is under strain because it is supporting nearly twice the expected number of participants and could collapse under its own weight without intervention.
How large is the pressure on ndis?
The scale is central to the debate. Children aged 18 and under made up 52% of the scheme’s 717, 000 participants as of March last year, while receiving 19%, or $8. 37bn, of all payments made by the scheme. At the same time, the program is projected to support more than 1 million participants by 2033. Labor says that growth cannot continue unchecked if the scheme is to remain sustainable.
Butler will describe the package as implementing recommendations from a landmark review released last year, with new technical advisory groups established to guide the changes. For families waiting for clarity, the policy fight has become more than a budget story. It is about whether the next version of ndis can still feel stable enough to plan a child’s care, a parent’s workday, and a household’s future.
