eid ul fitr 2026 will be determined by competing astronomical forecasts and national sighting practices as agencies publish projections for the Shawwal crescent in the final days of Ramazan.
What Happens When scientific forecasts point to different dates?
Two distinct forecast patterns have emerged from the material released by national and regional astronomical bodies. The Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (Suparco) forecasts that the new moon of Shawwal 1447 AH will be born on March 19 at 6: 23am. Suparco notes that at sunset on March 19, the new moon’s age will be approximately 12 hours and 41 minutes and the interval between sunset and moonset along Pakistan’s coastal belt will be about 28 minutes; on that basis Suparco assesses the chances of sighting the Shawwal crescent on the evening of March 19 as low and anticipates 1st Shawwal to fall on Saturday, March 21, 2026, marking the conclusion of the holy month of Ramazan.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) offers a complementary forecast, predicting Ramazan is likely to last 30 days because the Shawwal moon is unlikely to be visible on March 19. By contrast, the International Astronomical Center projects the Shawwal crescent will appear on March 18, a timeline that would place celebrations earlier in countries that began Ramazan on February 18.
Eid Ul Fitr 2026: What if local sighting traditions decide the date?
National sighting authorities retain the final authority to declare the start of Shawwal. In Pakistan, the Central Ruet-e-Hilal Committee is identified as the sole competent body to announce the beginning of Islamic months based on credible witness testimonies and verified observations from across the country; its decision can override astronomical forecasts if verified local sightings are presented. The interplay between astronomical calculation and established sighting committees means dates remain provisional until formal announcements are made.
What if holidays follow different national calendars?
Practical consequences are visible already in the holiday planning referenced in the available material. The International Astronomical Center’s projection that the crescent could appear on March 18 implies Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which began Ramazan on February 18, will likely celebrate Eid on March 19. India, where Ramazan began a day later, is expected to mark Eid on March 20, though local moon sightings could change that timing. Saudi authorities have prepared a four-day holiday starting March 18 in line with their forecast window. In another observance-related note, Jammu and Kashmir has declared March 13 as a holiday for Jumat-ul-Vida during Ramazan.
- Saudi Arabia and the UAE: crescent expected March 18 → Eid likely March 19
- India: Ramazan began a day later → Eid expected March 20, dependent on local sightings
- Pakistan: Suparco projects low chance of sighting on March 19 → Eid anticipated March 21; final date subject to Central Ruet-e-Hilal Committee decision
- Pakistan Meteorological Department: predicts Ramazan likely to last 30 days because of low visibility for the Shawwal moon on March 19
These variations show how the same lunar event produces staggered national calendars when start dates for Ramazan differed and when countries weigh observational rules differently.
Uncertainty remains inherent: astronomical birth times, moonset intervals and local atmospheric conditions combine with institutional practices around sightings to determine the final date in each jurisdiction. Readers should expect formal announcements from their national sighting committees before travel or community planning is finalized.
For planning and communal purposes, monitor pronouncements from national astronomical and meteorological bodies and from formal sighting committees; be prepared for Eid observances to fall on different days across the region, with eid ul fitr 2026
