irish racing is focused on Naas, where Tony Keenan looks ahead to today’s action and offers a 1pt win on CAOIMHE in the 17: 12 Naas at 9/2 (ET), alongside analysis of key handicaps and novice hurdles.
What Happens When Irish Racing Favors Non-Handicaps?
Tony Keenan flags the non-handicaps as potentially providing cleaner betting opportunities on this card. The BAR 1 Betting Kingsfurze Novice Hurdle (14: 30 ET) is headed in the market by Lazare de Star, but there are attitude and willingness questions around the favourite and other short-priced types such as Blake.
Davy Crockett is presented as an alternative with early promise, while Doctor Elvis is highlighted for the opening BAR 1 Betting Maiden Hurdle (14: 00 ET) after a strong hurdles debut and an improved run on return. Doctor Elvis is being brought back gradually by Gordon Elliott and should benefit from a step up in trip. Colcannon is noted as talented but inconsistent over hurdles and possibly better over shorter trips.
What If the Leinster National Handicap Chase Unravels?
The BAR 1 Betting Leinster National Handicap Chase (16: 02 ET) looks more solvable early in the market, with Goraibhmaithagat a strong favourite after a novice handicap win over the same course. Concerns focus on his jumping under pressure when matched with more experienced rivals.
Other live claims include Buachaillbocht, who had a solid run in the Paddy Power and encountered traffic and faster ground than ideal on that occasion; the horse has since disappointed at the DRF but earlier evidence suggested the run was influenced by race circumstances. The Lovely Man also enters with form this winter and a performance at Punchestown that may understate his true level after being held up and making a key jumping error. The top staying handicaps have been unpredictable recently, with long-priced winners in major handicap chases illustrating volatility: Favori De Champdou at 66/1, Spanish Harlem at 28/1, and My Immortal at 40/1.
Who Wins, Who Loses — Practical Takeaways and Positioning
- Short-term value: CAOIMHE (1pt win in the 17: 12 ET) is the clear single selection highlighted for the closer; the mare ran in a strong bumper and is presented as the pick for that race.
- Novice strategy: Consider non-handicaps (14: 00 and 14: 30 ET races) for cleaner form lines; Doctor Elvis and Davy Crockett are singled out as appeals based on recent runs and schooling.
- Handicap caution: The Leinster National (16: 02 ET) may be more straightforward in the market with Goraibhmaithagat favoured, but stamina and reliable jumping remain deciding factors; expect in-running pressure to reveal weaknesses.
Uncertainty remains across the card — testing ground is a specific worry in some novice cases, and the staying handicap landscape has produced surprise outcomes at very large odds. These are material considerations for anyone wagering or following formlines on the day.
What to Watch and What to Do Next
For readers tracking the Naas card (times ET), two practical approaches emerge from the preview: prioritise non-handicap races where recent form and jumping are clearer, and single out the highlighted selections where a concrete case is offered — CAOIMHE in the 17: 12 (1pt win) and the noted novice hurdling alternatives. In the big handicap chase, monitor jumping confidence and in-running signs for Goraibhmaithagat, Buachaillbocht and The Lovely Man before committing larger stakes. Keep expectations tempered: the top staying handicaps have produced long-priced winners recently, so bankroll management and selective staking are prudent for this phase of irish racing.
