The United Arab Emirates said on Tuesday it quit opec and OPEC+, a move that lands amid a historic energy shock linked to the Iran war. The decision comes as Gulf producers face pressure on exports through the Strait of Hormuz and as the global economy is unsettled by the conflict.
The UAE’s departure is a heavy blow to the oil exporting groups at a moment when shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated. The waterway, a narrow chokepoint between Iran and Oman, normally carries a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas, but Iranian threats and attacks against vessels have made exports more difficult.
Why the move matters now
The announcement sharpens a split inside the oil producer framework at a time when energy markets are already under strain. United States President Donald Trump has accused opec of “ripping off the rest of the world” by inflating oil prices, and he has linked US military support for Gulf states to oil prices, saying they exploit that protection by imposing high oil prices.
The UAE’s move also reflects rising frustration over security during the war. The country criticized fellow Arab states for not doing enough to protect it from numerous Iranian attacks during the war, adding a political layer to the oil decision.
Reaction from the UAE side
Anwar Gargash, the diplomatic adviser for the UAE president, criticized the Arab and Gulf response to the Iranian attacks in a session at the Gulf Influencers Forum on Monday. He said the Gulf Cooperation Council countries had supported each other logistically, but that their political and military position had been the weakest historically.
“I expect this weak stance from the Arab League and I am not surprised by it, but I haven’t expected it from the [Gulf] Cooperation Council and I am surprised by it, ” Gargash said. The comments place the opec exit in a wider dispute over regional protection and burden-sharing during the war.
What the timing signals
The move comes after OPEC Gulf producers had already been struggling to ship exports through the Strait of Hormuz because of Iranian threats and attacks against vessels. It also lands after Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of OPEC+ agreed to voluntary output cuts for the first quarter of 2024, underscoring the group’s continuing internal pressures.
For now, the UAE’s exit stands as one of the clearest signs yet that the war in Ukraine, heatwaves and export bans on essential staples are adding to already mounting strain across energy and supply systems. The next test for opec will be whether the group can hold together after losing a major Gulf member at a moment of heightened regional and market stress.
