YouGov’s final poll ahead of the South Australian election shows australia’s Labor is on track to secure its highest-ever two-party preferred vote while One Nation surges into second place and the Liberals slump to third. The poll projects Labor at a 59–41 two-party preferred lead against both major rivals, a swing of +4. 4% in Labor’s favour. One Nation’s rise to 22% primary support is concentrated outside Adelaide and is reshaping several regional contests.
What the YouGov poll shows
YouGov projects Labor will reach a record two-party preferred result in South Australia, leading 59% to 41% on a two-party preferred basis against both the Liberals and One Nation. Labor’s projected primary vote is two points lower than at the last state election, yet the poll still shows an expanded two-party margin. In Adelaide, Labor dominates on a 2PP basis, leading the Liberals 64% to 36%.
The Liberal Party’s projected primary vote of 19% would mark its weakest showing in state or federal contests since the Coalition formed, and the party is forecast to finish third in the state. Voter retention is a major issue: only 55% of those who voted Liberal at the last federal election intend to back the party at the state level, while 29% now list One Nation and 10% list Labor as their choice.
Australia regional shock: One Nation leads outside Adelaide
One Nation is shown at 22% statewide and strongest outside Adelaide, where the party records 27% primary support compared with Labor’s 24% and the Liberals’ 21%. In those regional areas the three-candidate preferred split becomes tightly contested — Labor 38%, One Nation 34% and Liberals 24% — making results there highly dependent on how preferences flow. YouGov highlights that One Nation’s gain matches its best-ever state result in other jurisdictions.
Immediate reactions
Paul Smith, Director of Public Data, YouGov, said: “Labor is set to secure the largest two-party preferred vote in the South Australian Labor Party’s history, while the Liberals are on track for their worst-ever result, finishing third on just 19%. One Nation’s surge to 22% places them second in the state for the first time, with particularly strong support in regional areas. ”
Smith added that the key driver behind One Nation’s support is disillusionment with the major parties: over half of One Nation voters say they feel unrepresented. He warned that the major parties will need better representation strategies to win back those voters, not merely adopting One Nation’s policies.
What happens next
With the poll painting a scenario of record two-party support for Labor and a regional surge for One Nation, attention now turns to how preference flows will decide close contests outside the capital. Observers will watch whether Liberal voters shift back, whether One Nation’s regional strength converts into seats, and how parties respond to the disaffection driving One Nation’s support. The YouGov final poll positions australia’s election as a test of preference politics and representation in the regions.
