At the Beverly Hilton Hotel, Teyana Taylor arrives at the 98th Academy Awards nominees luncheon, hair and dress catching the flash of cameras as the room hums with last-minute campaigning and speculation. Oscars 2026 is framed by scenes like this — elegiac, electric and decisive — as critics, voters and audiences tally chances and plan ballots.
What are Richard Roeper’s predictions for Oscars 2026?
Film critic Richard Roeper lays out a compact forecast that highlights both crowd-pleasers and technical standouts. “I expect to see ‘One Battle After Another’ and ‘Sinners’ split the evening, with five total wins apiece; ‘Frankenstein’ taking home as many as four Oscars in four craft categories; ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ winning for best animated feature and original song; and nine other films/performances winning one Academy Award, ” Roeper predicts. He frames this year’s ceremony as unusually open, calling it “one of the most entertaining and unpredictable Oscars in recent years. “
Roeper also underscores the year’s milestones: the addition of a best achievement in casting category — the Academy’s first new category since best animated feature — and the record nominations earned by Sinners, which garnered 16 nods and surpassed earlier multi-nominated films.
How are voting patterns, nominations and viewing access shaping the race?
Voting timelines and voter behavior are part of the story. Voting for the awards began on Feb. 26 and closed late in the week, with many of the roughly 10, 000 voters known to wait until the final days to cast ballots. Momentum from guild and actor prizes can swing late, in part because actors represent the largest voting bloc.
For Canadian viewers eager to catch up on nominees before the ceremony, most major films named in the nominations are available to stream or rent. The nominees include a mix of high-profile directors and performances: Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein starring Oscar Isaac and Jacob Elordi, Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet with Paul Mescal and Jessie Buckley, and Marty Supreme featuring Timothée Chalamet. Barry Hertz, film editor, has identified One Battle After Another as the best film of 2025, a perspective echoed in critical roundups.
Betting and speculative markets have also become part of the public conversation. Examples of market odds have been circulated: one contract shows a 16% chance that One Battle After Another will win exactly five Oscars, with a $10 winning stake producing a net profit of about $53 in that scenario. Markets also offered event-style propositions for attendance: a 99% chance listed for Kylie Jenner’s attendance, 61% for Ryan Gosling and 4% for Taylor Swift, the latter framed with an illustrative payout where a $10 winning bet would return a net profit of about $240. State-by-state rules affect where such wagering is available, with certain platforms blocked in some jurisdictions and other contracts accessible to residents through specified exchanges.
Beyond predictions and markets, the nominations themselves have human stories. Amy Madigan, a supporting actress nominee, brings a Chicago background to the ceremony: she grew up in South Shore, graduated from Aquinas High School and is the daughter of John Madigan, a longtime local journalist and broadcaster. Her career includes memorable roles in regionally beloved films, linking local audiences to the national night.
Organizers and industry groups have adjusted to the changes: the Academy’s category expansion reshapes campaign strategies and gives new recognition to behind-the-scenes talent; distributors and streaming platforms have put many nominees within reach for viewers planning watch lists before the ceremony.
Back at the Beverly Hilton, the luncheon’s chatter continues to orbit predictions, past records and the human stories behind nominations — performances, craft teams and hometown ties. As the ballots close and the red-carpet lists firm up, Roeper’s forecast provides one map of possibility while the nominees and new categories rewrite parts of the awards’ history. Oscars 2026, in the end, will be both the culmination of those calculations and a new chapter for films and artists waiting for their night.
