Jesus Aguilar Listed at +170 as Su Mudaerji Favored Ahead of UFC 326 — A Fight of Reach, Ground Game and Momentum

The final bout of the UFC 326 Early Prelims pins jesus aguilar against Su Mudaerji in a three-round Flyweight contest that reads like a classic striker-versus-grappler matchup. On paper the night is defined by one fighter’s length and striking output and the other’s ability to change the fight on the mat.

How do the fighters match up on paper?

Size and striking tilt heavily toward Su Mudaerji. He enters at 5’8″ with a 72″ reach, compared with 5’4″ and a 62″ reach for Jesus Aguilar. That four-inch height advantage and 10-inch reach gap come with measurable differences in output: Su Mudaerji connects on 4. 48 significant strikes per minute versus Aguilar’s 2. 65, and posts a 52% accuracy rate to Aguilar’s 40%. One preview framed that as roughly 1. 83 more significant strikes per minute for the taller fighter and a 12 percentage-point edge in accuracy.

Aguilar’s clearest advantage appears on the mat. He averages 1. 64 takedowns per 15 minutes while Su Mudaerji averages 0. 16. Su’s takedown defense is strong—listed at roughly 71%—which presents a clear tactical puzzle: Aguilar can threaten with wrestling, but must find a way to close distance against a rangier striker who has repeatedly taken fights to decisions.

What are the betting odds for Jesus Aguilar and Su Mudaerji?

Betting lines show a consistent short-price favorite in Su Mudaerji and the same underdog tag for Jesus Aguilar. One set of lines lists Su Mudaerji around -205 with Aguilar at +170; another presents Su Mudaerji at -200 while Aguilar remains +170. Market prices also give the bout a lean toward decision: a listed price put the fight at -160 to go to the judges and +120 for a finish, while Su Mudaerji’s recent UFC results include consecutive decision wins and four of five UFC victories by decision.

What could decide the fight and what are the human stakes?

Stylistically, the night will hinge on distance control and whether Aguilar can impose takedowns against a defender who deflects a high share of opponents’ attempts. Su Mudaerji’s edge in significant-strike volume and accuracy creates a pathway to a points win—keeping the fight at range, scoring consistently, and leaning on decision tendencies already visible in his record. Aguilar’s upside is a ground game that averages more takedowns and higher finish attempts per time frame: Aguilar attempts 1. 4 finishes per 15 minutes, compared with Su Mudaerji’s 0. 6 finishes per 15 minutes. Those numbers underline Aguilar’s ability to press for a fight-ending sequence if he can get past the takedown defense.

Records and recent form also matter. Aguilar walks into the cage with a strong run of results, having won four of his last five contests, and a unanimous decision victory in his prior bout. Su Mudaerji arrives on a two-fight winning streak and a style that produces high-volume striking nights without relying heavily on finishes.

Voices across previews have pointed to the same crossroads: Su Mudaerji’s reach and striking efficiency versus Jesus Aguilar’s wrestling and finishing intent. The matchup forces a clear strategic choice for Aguilar—close distance and wrestle—or risk being picked apart at range. For Su Mudaerji, the assignment is to keep the fight where his length and accuracy control exchanges and limit takedown opportunities.

Promotional placement matters here. As the final fight of the Early Prelims, this bout is a last chance to shape momentum on a big fight night card, with the odds reflecting both measurable advantages and a real opportunity for an upset if Aguilar executes his ground plan.

Back in the Early Prelims slot where the matchup begins, the differing profiles remain plain: Su Mudaerji’s reach, output and decision history versus jesus aguilar’s takedown numbers and finishing attempts. That tension—between distance and grappling, between favored odds and underdog upside—will decide whether the card’s penultimate moment becomes a straightforward decision or a late surprise that reshapes each fighter’s path forward.