The Toronto Maple Leafs’ nhl draft lottery odds are now tied to one last result and the final shape of the standings. The team will finish with either the fifth or sixth worst record in 2025-26, a position that will decide its chances in the lottery on May 5. The lottery will determine whether Toronto keeps its first-round selection in the 2026 NHL Draft.
One game left, one pick hanging in the balance
The Maple Leafs visit the Ottawa Senators at Canadian Tire Centre on Wednesday for their final game of the season, with Toronto sitting at 32-35-14 for 78 points and one game remaining. Seattle enters with a 34-35-11 record and 79 points, and the Kraken hold the first tiebreaker over Toronto. That means the Leafs have a strong chance to remain in the No. 5 position heading into the lottery if they do not beat Ottawa.
If Toronto wins, it will need Seattle to earn at least one point in its remaining two games to stay ahead in the standings. The final placement matters because the current format gives the No. 5 team a 41. 9 percent chance of selecting in the top five, while the No. 6 team drops to 15. 4 percent. For Toronto, those nhl draft lottery odds are the difference between keeping the pick and watching the lottery decide its fate.
Why the first-round pick is so sensitive
The Maple Leafs dealt the pick to the Boston Bruins, along with forward prospect Fraser Minten, in exchange for veteran defenseman Brandon Carlo in March 2025. But the pick remains top-5 protected, which means Toronto keeps the selection if it stays in that range after the lottery. That protection is what makes the final standings position so important.
The stakes are simple: if the lottery lands in Toronto’s favor and the pick stays inside the protected range, the Leafs keep it. If not, the selection changes hands. That is why the team’s nhl draft lottery odds have become one of the clearest reasons to watch the standings race through the final night.
Who could be in the Leafs’ sights
There is already at least one name in the discussion for Toronto’s 2026 draft range. Jason Bukala, in a segment with David Amber on Hockey Central, discussed potential targets for the Maple Leafs if they earn their pick in the lottery, including Soo Greyhounds defenceman Chase Reid and more. The conversation points to a draft picture that is still open, but only if the lottery scenario breaks Toronto’s way.
That is where the pressure now sits. The Leafs have already lost the comfort of controlling their own destiny, and the standings have narrowed the road to one final game and one key lottery position. If Toronto survives in the protected range, the nhl draft lottery odds remain alive; if not, the outcome shifts quickly from hope to uncertainty.
What happens next
Wednesday’s game in Ottawa will help settle where Toronto lands before the May 5 lottery. From there, the Leafs will learn whether they keep the first-round pick or surrender it as part of the Brandon Carlo trade. For a season defined by frustration, the final twist may still come down to the nhl draft lottery odds.
