canada population decline 2025 marks a historic reversal as Statistics Canada estimates show the country lost roughly 102, 000 people in 2025, driven by a steep fall in temporary residents. The decline occurred between Oct. 1, 2025 and Jan. 1, 2026 (ET) and reflects federal policy moves to reduce the share of temporary residents. The shift halted the rapid growth of prior years and is already altering rental markets and provincial population tallies.
Canada Population Decline 2025: Numbers and drivers
Statistics Canada estimates show the population decreased by around 103, 500 people, or 0. 25%, between Oct. 1, 2025 and Jan. 1, 2026 (ET). When combined with modest growth in the first half of 2025, the calendar year ended with a net decline of about 102, 000 people and a national population near 41. 5 million as of Jan. 1, 2026 (ET).
The most immediate cause was a dramatic drop in temporary residents: Statistics Canada data indicate more than 171, 000 fewer people in that category in the fourth quarter, bringing the temporary-resident total to about 2. 67 million, roughly 6. 4% of the population. Over 2025 on a net basis, roughly 461, 000 temporary residents departed, concentrated in Ontario and British Columbia, both of which saw annual population declines of 0. 7% in 2025.
Permanent resident admissions partially offset the outflow: Canada welcomed roughly 394, 000 permanent residents in 2025, though admissions fell 18. 6% from 2024. At its October 2024 peak, more than three million temporary residents lived in Canada, representing 7. 6% of the population; Ottawa has since introduced policy changes aimed at reducing that share to 5% by the end of 2026, a target later shifted to Dec. 31, 2027.
Immediate reactions and market impact
Robert Kavcic, senior economist at Bank of Montreal, captured the shift succinctly: “We’re now fully in an era of normalization, with population growth of around zero expected through 2027, before settling back to a baseline of just under one per cent. “
Cristobal D’Alessio, spokesperson for Statistics Canada, highlighted the rarity of the change: “2025 was the first calendar year to see an estimated decrease in the population since Confederation, ” he said, noting that reporting periods before 1946 used a different annual cycle.
The drop in temporary residents has had visible effects on the rental market. A joint report from Urbanation and Rentals. ca showed advertised rents across the country fell to a 33-month low in February, with notable declines in Toronto and Vancouver. Labour-market effects and youth unemployment linkages were among the concerns that prompted Ottawa to tighten flows of non-permanent workers and students.
Statistics Canada flagged caution about short-term swings: renewals of study and work permits could produce larger-than-usual population changes in coming months, making near-term estimates sensitive to administrative activity.
What’s next: monitoring policy, permits and provincial shifts
Expect close scrutiny of permit renewals, permanent resident admissions and Ottawa’s timeline for its temporary-resident target as officials and economists watch whether the decline stabilizes. Provincial patterns matter: Alberta continued to attract internal migrants while Ontario and British Columbia bore the largest exits of temporary residents.
Policy moves already enacted by Ottawa and the pace of permit renewals will determine whether canada population decline 2025 represents a brief correction or the start of a multi-year normalization of growth.
