Van Allen Radiation Belt probe set to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere — 1,323lb NASA craft expected to burn up tonight
The van allen radiation belt research probe Van Allen Probe A, weighing roughly 1, 323lb (600kg), is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere around 7: 45 p. m. ET, the US Space Force predicted. Most of the spacecraft is expected to burn up on re-entry, though some components may survive, and the agency has assessed the chance of harm to a person as 1 in 4, 200. NASA and the US Space Force will continue to monitor the re-entry and update predictions within a 24-hour margin of uncertainty.
What we know now
Van Allen Probe A launched in 2012 with a twin, Van Allen Probe B, on a mission to study Earth’s two permanent belts of trapped charged particles. The probe’s mission, designed to last two years, operated for almost seven years before being deactivated in 2019 when the spacecraft ran out of fuel and could no longer orient toward the Sun. The craft is estimated to re-enter at about 7: 45 p. m. ET, with an initial uncertainty of plus or minus 24 hours. Most of the vehicle is expected to burn during descent, but some pieces may survive to reach lower altitudes.
Van Allen Radiation Belt mission and findings
The twin probes collected unprecedented data on Earth’s radiation environment and how particles were gained and lost within the belts. The mission produced significant discoveries, including the first data showing that a transient third radiation belt can form during periods of intense solar activity. The probes’ measurements deepened understanding of the van allen radiation belt system and how it shields the planet from cosmic radiation, solar storms and streaming solar wind.
Immediate reactions
NASA issued a statement noting that “NASA expects most of the spacecraft to burn up as it travels through the atmosphere, but some components are expected to survive re-entry. ” The US Space Force has provided the projected timing and said it will continue to refine predictions as the event approaches. Mark Matney, Scientist, Orbital Debris Program Office, Johnson Space Center, Houston, said, “The odds that you will be hit are one in several trillion, so quite low for any particular person. “
What happens next
Officials will refine the re-entry window as tracking data is updated and will issue any changes in timing or risk. Van Allen Probe B remains in orbit and is not expected to re-enter before 2030 under current projections. Observers are especially focused on debris modeling and on confirming where surviving components, if any, fall. The van allen radiation belt research team and monitoring authorities will continue public updates as calculations are honed and the re-entry window narrows.
Timestamp: 7: 45 p. m. ET estimated re-entry time, with 24-hour uncertainty.
